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EV adoption in the US is starting to meet new headwinds after more than a year of positive month-over-month growth. On the one hand, consumer demand for electric vehicles has stagnated, and automakers like Genesis and Volvo have already seen buyers walk away from their electric offerings. On top of that, the political environment has become more hostile, with the current White House administration having cut subsidies and vehicle pollution rules, eliminating federal EV purchase incentives.

However, new research from a leading EV analyst indicates that the biggest barrier to EV charging may not be in Washington or boardrooms—it could be in your garage.

Historic polling data has shown that range anxiety and charging access have been by far the most significant concern for prospective electric car buyers, but a new Telemetry market research study by Sam Abuelsamid VP of Business Development dives into the charging issue in greater detail.

A new report from Telemetry is starting to lay that bare. Sam Abuelsamid, Vice President of Business Development at Telemetry, a market intelligence firm, points to a “factor that has been largely overlooked by the industry and the EV consumer: garage usage.”

While the headlines may be dominated by reports on the state of fast charging and demand, most EV charging still happens at home. An estimated 80 percent of all EV charging happens through AC power, most often at a single-family home or residence.

Per data compiled by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 42 percent of American homeowners already live in a house where at least one vehicle can park within range of a level 2 (240-volt) EV charger.

The availability of charging at that home could more than double to 68 percent if those who use private garage spaces as storage reallocated that space for vehicles. “The key, though, will be parking behavior, namely, whether homeowners use a private garage for parking or storage,” Abuelsamid notes.

If every garage in the country that was not cluttered by storage could house a vehicle and provide charging, the total number of homes that would be “charging ready” could jump from 31 million to more than 50 million. Including homes that can feasibly support new wiring, that number could exceed 72 million. That total is well above Telemetry’s most bullish EV penetration forecast for 2035, which projects between 33 million and 57 million electric vehicles.

Money for Upgrades?

Capacity to charge electric vehicles on paper does not always translate to reality. In the same NREL study, nearly 34 million homes were projected to need upgrades from their current 120-volt service to 240-volt to support an average level 2 charger. Level 2 chargers typically draw at least 30 amps of current, and upgrades of that nature from a house built prior to the 1960s could range from the addition of new wiring to a full service panel replacement, a task that can cost thousands of dollars.

This would seriously undercut one of the primary selling points for EVs over internal combustion engine vehicles: reduced cost of ownership over time. When the capital expense of home charger installation is added to an EV’s purchase price, the total cost of ownership can easily begin to rival, and even exceed, a similarly-equipped gasoline-powered vehicle.

Multifamily Housing Woes

The problems only get worse for the roughly 23 percent of Americans who live in multifamily residential units like apartments, condominiums, and townhomes. This group of would-be EV drivers does not have the luxury of being able to choose to install chargers, at least not in most cases. In these cases, installation of a charger is typically subject to the discretion of a landlord, property management firm, or co-op board, an approval that cannot be assumed.

The price tag is steeper as well. Installing a single level 2 charger at a multifamily home may require an upgrade of the building’s electrical panel to one that can handle the current drawn by multiple chargers at once. Panels of that nature often start in the millions of dollars to replace or upgrade, especially for a building that is several decades old. Distance further compounds the cost, as wiring must be run from the electrical source to individual parking spots that could be several hundred feet away. Unlike homeowners, residents of these buildings are often not eligible for local or utility financial incentives for charger installation.

As of now, just under one million EV drivers live in multifamily housing, but just 11 percent of those who could charge at home park in an area close enough to an outlet to support it. Some states have requirements that 20–25 percent of all spaces in multifamily dwellings built in the future be EV-ready with a charger installed or able to support one at the time of construction. Even then, Telemetry’s modeling indicates that multifamily dwellings are on pace to only have between 6.7 million and 11.4 million charging-capable spaces by 2035, falling well short of demand.

The Public Charging Deficit

Home charging alone cannot support the expected EV charging demand. The Telemetry study projects that between 11.7 million and 14.3 million EV owners who own homes will still need to rely on public charging in 2035. An additional 7.8 million to 8.1 million EV owners who live in multifamily residences will also need public charging to meet demand. Satisfying this demand will require between 523,000 and 586,000 DC fast chargers nationwide plus an additional 1.5 million to 1.6 million level 2 chargers. That is a tall order. Utility companies are already under duress as a result of the charging demand, and many new AI data centers are competing with them for the same generation and distribution capacity, making the expansion of charging infrastructure at the hundreds of locations these companies hope to build challenging.

Amid all the good news about EV demand in recent years, it is easy to lose sight of the challenges ahead. While millions of American homes could in theory be converted to support charging, cluttered garages, high electrical upgrade costs, and the realities of multifamily living all stand in the way of mass EV adoption. Even with an aggressive public charging expansion, it is possible demand could outstrip supply over the next decade.

For now, one thing is clear: in the US at least, the future of electric vehicles may depend as much on the home garage as it does on policy in DC or product decisions in automaker boardrooms.